The Calm Before the Storm: Reading the Synoptic Charts Behind “Amy”
Why it’s calm right now
Storm Amy: Reading the Synoptic Story
Step through the Met Office charts from analysis to T+72 and see how a quiet ridge turns into a deepening Atlantic low. Use the HIGH and LOW hotspots to learn what each feature means (ridges, fronts, tightening isobars), what you’ll feel at the surface (wind, rain, visibility, sea state), and how timing shifts as Amy approaches, occludes and clears. By the end you’ll be able to look at a synoptic chart and translate lines into decisions: when to go, where it gets rough, and why the “calm before the storm” is the best prep window.
T+0 — Analysis (valid 12 UTC Wed 01 Oct)
HIGH (H 1039 Scandinavia / North Sea ridge)LOW (Atlantic low ~980 mb west of UK with long fronts)Summary:
UK in a pre-frontal south–southwesterly with cloud thickening from the west; a strong Scandinavian high keeps the gradient aligned SW–NE while an Atlantic low and its fronts organise to the west. Expect rain to edge into western areas later while the east stays drier for longer.T+12 — Forecast (valid 00 UTC Thu 02 Oct)
HIGH (H 1037 over Scandinavia)LOW (L ~980 near Iceland–Ireland corridor with sharpening fronts)Summary:
Fronts close in overnight: Ireland and western fringes turn wet and windy, while central/eastern Britain remain comparatively sheltered under residual ridging until nearer dawn.T+24 — Forecast (valid 12 UTC Thu 02 Oct)
LOW (L 984 west of Ireland with active frontal wave)HIGH (H 1035 Scandinavia / weakening ridge)Summary:
Warm front then cold front sweep east across Ireland and western Britain: a wet, increasingly windy day in the west, turning unsettled further east by afternoon/evening.T+36 — Forecast (valid 00 UTC Fri 03 Oct)
LOW hotspot (L 998 near/just W of UK with tightening gradients)HIGH (H 1025 SW of UK / Azores ridge edge)Summary:
Core of the system edges closer: gradients strengthen widely and a squally cold front works east overnight—expect a step-up in gusts and a rapid clearance to showers behind the front in the west.T+48 — Forecast (valid 12 UTC Fri 03 Oct
LOW (L 962 near SW Britain/Ireland with wrapping occlusion)HIGH (H 1026 south of UK)Summary:
System deepens further near the western approaches: strongest winds affect western and southern coasts with bands of heavy rain; elsewhere increasingly windy with squally spells as the occlusion wraps in.T+60 — Forecast (valid 00 UTC Sat 04 Oct)
LOW (L 939 near W/NW of UK — storm centre)HIGH (H 1027 central Atlantic)Summary:
Peak phase: the low bombs to the west/northwest of the UK with very tight isobars—expect the most severe gusts overnight into Saturday, then a veer to blustery W–NW behind the active fronts.T+72 — Forecast (valid 12 UTC Sat 04 Oct)
LOW (L 946 over/near North Sea with wrap-around flow)HIGH (H 1031 building SW of UK)Summary:
Low moves east and begins to fill slightly: strong W–NW winds persist, especially north and east, with showers and bright intervals; pressure starts rising from the southwest later.
What this means for skippers
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